Reliable and accurate Arctic weather forecasts

Climate change leads to increased activity in the Arctic, but rough weather conditions can lead to this activity being associated with high risks. The primary objective of the Alertness project is to develop world leading, reliable and accurate Arctic weather forecasts and warnings. These will benefit maritime operations, business and society.

Research from Alertness will result in tools and methods that increase our knowledge of weather conditions in the Arctic, which in turn provides better forecasts of potentially dangerous weather situations. The goal is to provide better warnings up to three days in the future.

We build on the science for service work required for MET Norway to fulfil its mandate, as well as established mechanisms between the service provider and the user community. Alertness will be embedded in an existing value chain structure for weather forecasting, which the project will both exploit and expand. We will identify and focus on weather situations that have major significance for users of the arctic region. 

 

Background info

Alertness (Advanced models and weather prediction in the Arctic) is a 4-year (2018–2021) research project about Arctic weather prediction financed by the Norwegian Research Councils program for polar research POLARPROG. Alertness is led by the Meteorological Institute of Norway (MET Norway) and is a cooperation between MET Norway, University of Bergen (UiB), NORCE, University of Tromsø (UiT), The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) and The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS).

Alertness is endorsed by the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP).


Project partners

Alertness is led by the Meteorological Institute of Norway (MET Norway) and is a cooperation between MET Norway, University of Bergen (UiB), Uni Research (UNI), University of Tromsø (UiT), The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) and The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS).

International cooperation

The Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

The Polar Prediction Project (PPP) is a 10-year (2013–2022) endeavour of the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) with the aim of promoting cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hours to seasonal.

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is the flagship activity of the the Polar Prediction Project (PPP) with the aim of enabling a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, verification, user-engagement and education activities.

Alertness is endorsed by YOPP, and MET Norway will play an active part in many areas during YOPP, including launching additional observations and operational weather, ocean and ice forecasting. For instance, MET Norway have at present one of the most sophisticated and detailed numerical weather prediction models dedicated to the Arctic, AROME-Arctic.

 

Publications

Køltzow, M., B. Casati, E. Bazile, T. Haiden, and T. Valkonen, 2019: An NWP Model Intercomparison of Surface Weather Parameters in the European Arctic during the Year of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period Northern Hemisphere
Weather and Forecasting, Aug 2019
A conversation with the lead author of this paper can be found here.

I. Esau, M. Tolstykh, R. Fadeev, V. Shashkin, S. Makhnorylova, V. Miles and V. Melnikov:
Systematic errors in northern Eurasian short-term weather forecasts induced by atmospheric boundary layer thickness,
Environmental Research Letters, Dec 2018.

L. Papritza and H. Sodemann:
Characterizing the Local and Intense Water Cycle during a Cold Air Outbreak in the Nordic Seas
Monthly Weather Review, Oct 2018.